Nigeria requires an estimated 920 vessels to support its ambition of building a $1 trillion economy by 2030, against its current fleet of just 307 Nigerian-owned ships, maritime lawyer, Dr Emeka Akabogu, SAN, has said.
Akabogu made the submission while presenting a paper titled, “Can Nigeria’s Seaports Carry a One-Trillion-Dollar Economy by 2030?” at the National Conference of the Network of Nigerian Maritime Journalists (NNMJ), held on Friday in Lagos.
He said the country faced a significant indigenous shipping capacity deficit, requiring an additional 613 vessels to meet the estimated fleet requirement for the projected size of its economy.
According to figures contained in his presentation, Nigeria had approximately 307 Nigerian-owned ships in 2025. However, under the prevailing fleet growth pattern, the number is projected to increase to only 348 by 2030.
This, he said, would leave the country with a shortfall of about 572 vessels against the estimated 920 ships required to support a $1 trillion economy.
Akabogu also disclosed that Nigeria’s flag fleet currently has a combined capacity of approximately 7.12 million deadweight tonnes (DWT), compared with an estimated requirement of 21.4 million DWT.
He said the figures raised concerns about the country’s preparedness to handle the increased cargo volumes that would accompany a significantly expanded economy and the extent to which indigenous shipowners would benefit from growing international trade.
The maritime lawyer warned that expanding port infrastructure without corresponding investment in indigenous shipping capacity would leave Nigeria largely dependent on foreign shipowners for the movement of its imports and exports.
He stressed that achieving a $1 trillion economy would require more than modern seaports and efficient cargo clearance systems, noting that indigenous fleet development must form a critical part of the country’s economic growth strategy.
On financing, Akabogu advocated a more practical approach to the administration of the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF), recommending that funding should be tied to vessels supported by identifiable cargo contracts and credible crewing plans.
He argued that access to financing must translate into the acquisition and deployment of operational vessels capable of generating business, rather than arrangements that fail to deliver tangible results.
He further emphasised the need to develop Nigerian seafarers and strengthen local participation in the shipping industry, noting that fleet expansion must be supported by skilled manpower and a sustainable operating environment.
The presentation also highlighted the financial implications of Nigeria’s dependence on foreign shipping services, estimating the country’s annual net transport payments at about $4.5 billion.
Akabogu warned that without deliberate investment in indigenous shipping, Nigeria risked expanding its economy and trade volumes while allowing a significant proportion of the resulting shipping business and revenue to remain in foreign hands.
‘Nigerian Seaports Unprepared to Carry $1 Trillion Economy by 2030’
Earlier, Chairman of the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ), Lagos State Council, Mr Adewale Akodu, urged the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) to sustain its reform initiatives, particularly in trade facilitation, intelligence-driven operations, transparency, professionalism and stakeholder engagement.
Akodu said the effectiveness of the reforms should not be measured solely by revenue generated but also by their impact on businesses, consumers, investors and the overall Nigerian economy.
