The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday slightly cut its forecast for oil demand growth, citing the impact of US tariffs on the world economy.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for April, the Secretariat now sees demand grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 1.4 million bpd.
The price of OPEC’s basket of twelve crudes fell to $66,25 a barrel on Monday, compared with $70,85 the previous Friday, according to OPEC Secretariat calculations.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs as well as a plan for higher output by OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies such as Russia, have put downward pressure on oil prices this month and raised concern about economic growth.
OPEC said trade concerns would contribute to volatility but had kept forecasts steady, saying the global economy would adjust.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” OPEC said in Monday’s report.
OPEC’s report also showed that crude production by the wider OPEC+ fell in March by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd due in part to reductions by Nigeria and Iraq.
The development comes after the eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, met virtually on 3 April 2025 to review global market conditions and outlook.
In view of the continuing healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024, subsequently reaffirmed on 3 March 2025, to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments starting from 1 April 2025.
The eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 411 thousand barrels per day, equivalent to three monthly increments, in May 2025.
This comprises the increment originally planned for May in addition to two monthly increments. “The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions,” OPEC+ had said in a note after the meeting.
It added that the flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability.
The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.
The eight countries will meet on the 5th of May to decide on June production levels.
