Nigeria’s economic outlook has received a major boost as global ratings agency, S&P Global Ratings, upgraded the country’s long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to “B” from “B-”, citing stronger economic growth, improved external balances, rising oil production, and expanded domestic refining capacity.
Central to the positive assessment is the operational ramp-up of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, which the agency identified as a major contributor to Nigeria’s improving balance of payments position and broader economic resilience.
According to S&P, the refinery’s near-full capacity operations are helping to strengthen Nigeria’s current account surplus, reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products, and improve foreign exchange liquidity.
“Significant refining capacity is now also online; Dangote Industries Ltd.’s large-scale refinery and petrochemical complex has ramped up to near its maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day,” the report stated.
S&P projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus would rise to 5.8 per cent of GDP in 2026 from 4.8 per cent in 2025, driven partly by increased domestic refining activities and hydrocarbon exports.
The agency noted that the refinery is helping to guarantee the availability of refined fuel, gas, and fertiliser for the domestic market while providing a buffer against global supply disruptions linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
It further stated that Nigeria’s improving external position has been supported by reduced fuel import dependence, fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate liberalisation, and higher crude oil production.
According to the report, Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have increased significantly from about $33 billion in 2023 to nearly $50 billion by early 2026, aided partly by lower import demand for refined petroleum products following the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery.
S&P also highlighted the refinery’s broader role in supporting Africa’s industrialisation ambitions, noting that Nigeria is gradually transitioning from being primarily a crude oil exporter to an emerging producer and exporter of refined petroleum products.
The agency disclosed that Dangote Industries Limited has already unveiled plans to undertake feasibility studies aimed at expanding refining capacity to about 1.4 million barrels per day from the current 650,000 barrels per day.
According to S&P, the proposed expansion, alongside the rehabilitation of other local refineries, could further strengthen Nigeria’s economy and deliver additional gains to the country’s balance of payments position in the coming years.
While acknowledging that global crude oil prices and market-driven pricing continue to influence domestic fuel costs, the agency maintained that increased local refining capacity provides Nigeria with greater energy security and reduced exposure to external supply shocks.
The report also linked Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic outlook to reforms introduced since 2023, including exchange rate liberalisation, fiscal reforms, improved petroleum revenue remittances, and efforts to boost oil production through enhanced security in the Niger Delta.
S&P added that Nigeria’s economic growth is expected to remain firm despite inflationary pressures, with ongoing reforms continuing to support investor confidence and expansion in the non-oil sector.
According to the agency, the stable outlook reflects a balance between Nigeria’s improving external position and continuing structural challenges such as a narrow tax base, high inflation, and low formal employment levels.
